Christmas spending fails to maintain tempo with UK inflation

Christmas gross sales did not match the tempo of total UK inflation in December, early information from business our bodies indicated on Tuesday.

Because the cost of living crisis put the next price ticket on this 12 months’s festive season, the British Retail Consortium, a commerce affiliation, reported that the worth of its members’ whole gross sales — principally large supermarkets and chains — rose by 6.9 per cent final month in contrast with December 2021.

However regardless of stronger gross sales values, exceeding the three-month common of 4.4 per cent, “development remained beneath inflation”, mentioned BRC chief government Helen Dickinson. December marked the “ninth consecutive month of falling volumes”.

Shopper worth inflation stood at 10.7 per cent in November, having dipped for the primary time in 18 months, down from October’s 41-year excessive of 11.1 per cent.

The gloomy message from retailers was mirrored in separate information from funds firm Barclaycard, additionally printed on Tuesday, which recommended that the surging prices of necessities had pressured households to dial again on discretionary purchases.

In response to Barclaycard, which gathers figures from virtually half of the UK’s credit score and debit card transactions, client card spending was 4.4 per cent up on December 2021. It additionally surpassed November’s annual spending development of three.9 per cent.

However regardless of the Christmas increase, spending trailed far behind the extent of inflation. Outgoings on utilities climbed 40.6 per cent in December, because the chilly snap prompted extra households to extend their heating, leaving individuals with much less funds room for items and vacation actions.

But, “the retail, journey and hospitality sectors all noticed noticeable development in December”, mentioned Esme Harwood, a director at Barclays. Individuals spent extra on going out final month, with pubs, bars and golf equipment having fun with their largest uplift since Could 2022, as Christmas events and the World Cup boosted takings.

Eating places reported a fall of three.9 per cent in contrast with 2021, however this was nonetheless considerably higher on the ten.3 per cent year-on-year decline in November.

The speed of inflation is anticipated to have fallen additional in December, with the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics set to launch official figures subsequent week. However the fall within the annual price is not going to deliver costs down, leaving households nonetheless uncovered to value of residing strain.

“Price pressures present little speedy indicators of waning, and client spending will probably be additional constrained by rising residing prices,” famous Dickinson.

Rising enterprise pessimism was mirrored within the UK labour market, which softened on the finish of 2022, in keeping with a survey of recruiters that confirmed placements of everlasting workers fell on the quickest price in virtually two years in December.

The month-to-month survey, printed on Tuesday by KPMG and the Recruitment & Employment Confederation, discovered that uncertainty and funds strain had weighed on demand for workers, whereas potential candidates have been more and more nervous of transferring jobs through the downturn.

Vacancies continued to rise in December as employers took on extra short-term workers, however most recruiters mentioned everlasting employee appointments have been falling. This marked the third consecutive month-to-month decline — the sharpest seen since January 2021, when the UK was getting into its third lockdown.


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